Fire AggroTier 1
at Tainan Regional
decks
5
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
31
14-14-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1305
· median 1331
· range 1178–1405
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1225
Q3 1408
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.1% | -14.9 |
| Water Fractal | 10.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 9.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 35.8% | -9.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +1.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.5% | +5.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.8% | +16.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
